Slight Risk for Severe Weather Expected Tuesday
The National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center has issued a slight risk for severe weather for the tri-state this Tuesday.
At present, there is also an enhanced risk for severe weather just south of the immediate tri-state area for Tuesday, as well.
Keep that in mind as you read this description from the National Weather Service:
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN MS INTO WESTERN KY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OH RIVER VALLEY SOUTHWARD TO
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE TUNDERSTORMS FROM IL/IN SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST OVERNIGHT.
AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FROM KS TO LAKE SUPERIOR WITH AN EXPANSIVE
AREA OF STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE MS AND OH
VALLEYS. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM ERN KS INTO IL
DURING THE DAY...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S FROM THE LOW ALONG
THE MS RIVER BY 00Z. DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F WILL SPREAD NWD ACROSS
THE WARM SECTOR WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPING TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH THE GREATEST RISK FROM MS NWD TO THE OH
RIVER DURING THE AFTERNOON.
...LOWER MS VALLEY/CNTRL GULF COAST NWD TO THE OH RIVER...
A CAPPING INVERSION WILL RESULT IN A LACK OF EARLY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION...BUT STRENGTHENING LIFT AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING SFC LOW/TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN STORMS DEVELOPING BY 18Z
ACROSS LA...ERN AR...AND SERN MO AHEAD OF THE LOW. AS STRONG WIND
SHEAR ACTS ON THESE STORMS...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ORGANIZE
INTO A LINE OF STORMS...WITH A MIXTURE OF BOWING SEGMENTS AND
EMBEDDED. BOTH DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
ALTHOUGH THE LOW AND STRONGEST LIFT WILL DEPART NWD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES TUE EVENING AND NIGHT...SUFFICIENT LIFT AND A MOIST AIR MASS
NEAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE FRONT FROM AL INTO THE FL PANHANDLE MAY
SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS THERE AS WELL.
You know, it occurs to me that we say SLIGHT risk or ENHANCED risk quite a bit during these types of events, but some may not know their exact definitions.
SLIGHT RISK is an area of organized severe storms, which is not widespread in coverage with varying levels of intensity.
ENCHANCED RISK is an area of greater (relative to Slight risk) severe storm coverage with varying levels of intensity.
Hopefully, we won't see any predictions about an intensification in our area, but we will keep you posted.