I confess that when I first saw this I thought "no way this is correct", but the numbers back it up. A new ranking claims that Springfield, Missouri is now more dangerous than St. Louis. Let's do a deep dive in the numbers and see if this is accurate and if so, wow.

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This began as a search of curiosity. I had seen the list of most dangerous cities in Missouri, but the FBI data was based on numbers for 2018. What about 2022? House Grail has an update and boy is it a bombshell. Their methodology says they looked at "the most recent FBI crime data to find the top 10 most dangerous cities in Missouri".

Springfield is now the most dangerous city in Missouri?

House Grail claims it's true and the FBI data backs it up - kinda. They shared a lot of numbers, but in the simplest terms, it boils down to this.

  • In St. Louis, you have a 1 in 50 chance of being involved in a violent crime.
  • In Springfield, Missouri, you have a 1 in 8 chance of being involved in a crime.

When you dig deeper, the picture is a little different. Specifically, the murder rate in Springfield is 0.13 per 1,000 people. In St. Louis, it's a staggering 0.87 per 1,000 residents.

How is this possible?

Looking at the big picture, how is it possible that Springfield is really more "dangerous" than St. Louis. House Grail sums it up in one sentence:

St. Louis has the most murders of any city, but the combined crime against individuals puts Springfield at number one.

My jaw is on the floor.

For the record, Hannibal did NOT make the top 10 in case you were wondering. The entire updated 2022 House Grail ranking is worth reading in case you're interested in how other cities in Missouri fared.

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